Regional Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Vector Autoregression Model in South Korea

A-Hyun Jung, Dong-Hyun Lee, Jin-Young Kim (), Chang Ki Kim, Hyun-Goo Kim and Yung-Seop Lee ()
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A-Hyun Jung: Department of Statistics, Dongguk University, Seoul 04620, Korea
Dong-Hyun Lee: Department of Statistics, Dongguk University, Seoul 04620, Korea
Jin-Young Kim: New and Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Chang Ki Kim: New and Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Hyun-Goo Kim: New and Renewable Energy Resource Map Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Yung-Seop Lee: Department of Statistics, Dongguk University, Seoul 04620, Korea

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 21, 1-13

Abstract: Renewable energy forecasting is a key for efficient resource use in terms of power generation and safe grid control. In this study, we investigated a short-term statistical forecasting model with 1 to 3 h horizons using photovoltaic operation data from 215 power plants throughout South Korea. A vector autoregression (VAR) model-based regional photovoltaic power forecasting system is proposed for seven clusters of power plants in South Korea. This method showed better predictability than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The normalized root-mean-square errors of hourly photovoltaic generation predictions obtained from VAR (ARIMA) were 8.5–10.9% (9.8–13.0%) and 18.5–22.8% (21.3–26.3%) for 1 h and 3 h horizon, respectively, at 215 power plants. The coefficient of determination, R 2 was higher for VAR, at 4–5%, than ARIMA. The VAR model had greater accuracy than ARIMA. This will be useful for economical and efficient grid management.

Keywords: photovoltaic power; solar irradiance; cluster analysis; VAR; ARIMA; regional prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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