Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran

Hossein Yousefi, Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad () and Armin Ghodrati
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Hossein Yousefi: Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran 14166-34793, Iran
Mohammad Hasan Ghodusinejad: Renewable Energies and Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran 14166-34793, Iran
Armin Ghodrati: School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 13114-16846, Iran

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 24, 1-25

Abstract: An increase in energy demand in the coming years is inevitable, and therefore it is necessary to provide optimal solutions for this future need. This paper examines the future energy demands of the southern regions of Iran (with a hot and dry climate and high energy needs). In this regard, the overall structure of the research has been divided into three parts. In the first part, using historical energy consumption data, the energy demand in 2030 is predicted. This is carried out utilizing a time series analysis method, namely Holt–Winters. Then, relying on the plans of the Iran Ministry of Energy, various energy plans have been designed and energy modeling has been carried out for both base and forecast years. Finally, regarding a multi-criteria decision-making approach, energy plans are ranked and the best scenarios are selected and analyzed. The results of modeling and multi-criteria analysis showed that comprehensive and simultaneous development in the construction of thermal and renewable power plants is the best option to meet future energy needs.

Keywords: energy planning; demand forecasting; Holt-Winters; CRITIC; EDAS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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