Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy

Nicoletta Matera (), Domenico Mazzeo (), Cristina Baglivo and Paolo Maria Congedo
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Nicoletta Matera: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy
Domenico Mazzeo: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy
Cristina Baglivo: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy
Paolo Maria Congedo: Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: This work aims to assess the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) electricity in two Italian cities, with different latitudes and Köppen–Geiger climate classifications. This was undertaken using the recent EURO-CORDEX set of high-resolution climate projections and PV power generation models, implemented on TRNSYS software. Data for two variables (surface air temperature and solar radiation) were analysed over a long period from 1971 to 2100. For future periods, two of the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were considered. In both RCP scenarios and both locations, it is estimated that the yearly PV energy produced in the future period will not undergo significant variations on average given that the rate of decrease is foreseen almost constant; instead, a slight reduction in the PV energy was detected in the past period. It can be concluded that the PV market in Italy will grow in the next years considering that the reduction in the foreseen PV purchase costs will be also supported by the slight positive effect of climate change on PV manufacturability.

Keywords: climate change; photovoltaic; dynamic simulation; electricity; efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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