Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations

Aissatou Ndiaye (), Mounkaila Saley Moussa, Cheikh Dione, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Jan Bliefernicht, Laouali Dungall and Harald Kunstmann
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Aissatou Ndiaye: West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Uses (WASCAL) Doctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Energy (DRP-CCE), Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger
Mounkaila Saley Moussa: West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Uses (WASCAL) Doctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Energy (DRP-CCE), Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger
Cheikh Dione: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique de Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CEDEX, 91128 Palaiseau, France
Windmanagda Sawadogo: Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany
Jan Bliefernicht: Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany
Laouali Dungall: Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger
Harald Kunstmann: Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 24, 1-22

Abstract: Renewable energy development is growing fast and is expected to expand in the next decades in West Africa as a contribution to addressing the power demand and climate change mitigation. However, the future impacts of climate change on solar PV and the wind energy potential in the region are still unclear. This study investigates the expected future impacts of climate change on solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa using an ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs). Each RCM is driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from the new coordinated high-resolution output for regional evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two projection periods were used: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100). For the model evaluation, reanalysis data from ERA5 and satellite-based climate data (SARAH-2) were used. The models and their ensemble mean (hereafter Mean) show acceptable performance for the simulations of the solar PV potential, the wind power density, and related variables with some biases. The Mean predicts a general decrease in the solar PV potential over the region of about −2% in the near future and −4% in the far future. The wind power density (WPD) is expected to increase by about 20% in the near future and 40% in the far future. The changes for solar PV potential seem to be consistent, although the intensity differs according to the RCM used. For the WPD, there are some discrepancies among the RCMs in terms of intensity and direction. This study can guide governments and policymakers in decision making for future solar and wind energy projects in the region.

Keywords: CORDEX-CORE; regional climate modelling; climate change; renewable energy; West Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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