Could China Declare a “Coal Phase-Out”? An Evolutionary Game and Empirical Analysis Involving the Government, Enterprises, and the Public

Jingna Kou, Fengjun Sun, Wei Li and Jie Jin
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Jingna Kou: School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
Fengjun Sun: School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
Wei Li: School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
Jie Jin: School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 2, 1-24

Abstract: There is a global move toward being “carbon neutral”. Reducing the use of coal to generate power has become an inevitable choice for many countries when transforming their energy structures. Many countries have proposed phasing out coal. China is a major energy producing and consuming country and intends to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. China has repeatedly emphasized coal reduction, but has not explicitly proposed phasing out coal, due to the influence of local governments, coal-related enterprises, and the public. This paper explores whether China could declare a “coal phase-out”, and the possible reasons for doing so, by constructing an evolutionary game model with two correlations. MATLAB was used to simulate the model results to determine the effectiveness of the fractal results of the model, and the entropy method was used to calculate the development level of “coal phase-out” related indicators in China and Germany. The results show that: (1) The government can phase out coal only when coal-related enterprises and the public can benefit from reducing coal production and consumption. In addition, these benefits are needed to ensure stable economic and social development without affecting people’s daily lives; (2) The development level of relevant indicators of “coal retreat” in China is lower than that in Germany. Based on these results, it is concluded that it is difficult for China to announce a “coal phase-out” at present. Faced with this reality, China should improve the efficiency of coal use, install carbon capture and storage facilities, vigorously develop renewable energy and reduce the share of coal in the energy system.

Keywords: China; coal phase-out; local government; enterprises; the public (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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