Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland

Tomasz Cieślik, Piotr Narloch, Adam Szurlej and Krzysztof Kogut
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Tomasz Cieślik: Institute of Nuclear Physics PAN, Radzikowski St. 152, 31342 Kraków, Poland
Piotr Narloch: Faculty of Drilling, Oil and Gas, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicz Ave. 30, 30059 Kraków, Poland
Adam Szurlej: Faculty of Drilling, Oil and Gas, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicz Ave. 30, 30059 Kraków, Poland
Krzysztof Kogut: Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicz Ave. 30, 30059 Kraków, Poland

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: In March 2020, a lockdown was imposed due to a global pandemic, which contributed to changes in the structure of the consumption of natural gas. Consumption in the industry and the power sector decreased while household consumption increased. There was also a noticeable decrease in natural gas consumption by commercial consumers. Based on collected data, such as temperature, wind strength, duration of weather events, and information about weather conditions on preceding days, models for forecasting gas consumption by commercial consumers (hotels, restaurants, and businesses) were designed, and the best model for determining the impact of the lockdown on gas consumption by the above-mentioned consumers was determined using the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). The best model of artificial neural networks (ANN) gave a 2.17% MAPE error. The study found a significant decrease in gas consumption by commercial customers during the first lockdown period.

Keywords: forecasting gas consumption; neural networks; lockdown (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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