Lightning Failure Risk Assessment of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on Modified Dempster–Shafer Theory

Jie Liu, Boyan Jia, Zhimeng Zhang, Zimo Wang, Ping Wang and Jianghai Geng
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Jie Liu: State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
Boyan Jia: State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
Zhimeng Zhang: State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
Zimo Wang: Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Power Equipment Security Defense, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Ping Wang: Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Power Equipment Security Defense, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Jianghai Geng: Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Power Equipment Security Defense, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-10

Abstract: Lightning has a certain degree of potential threat to the safe operation of overhead transmission lines. In order to make targeted lightning protection arrangements and reduce the impact of lightning on overhead transmission lines, it is necessary to conduct lightning risk assessments on overhead transmission lines. This paper proposes a lightning failure risk assessment method for overhead transmission lines based on a modified Dempster–Shafer theory. First, analyze the historical lightning failure data of the line, determine the lightning failure impact factors, and use confidence to express the relationship between the lightning failure and the impact factor; then, use entropy weight theory and gray relational theory to calculate the value of mass function, and modify it on this basis; finally, use Dempster–Shafer theory to determine the trust degree and fit this with the calculated lightning trip rate to produce the risk assessment. This paper analyzes the lightning failure data of overhead transmission lines in some areas of Hebei Province. The results show that, compared with the evaluation method of the Dempster–Shafer theory, the accuracy of the evaluation is improved to a certain extent after correcting the mass function value. It can be seen that this method can integrate and comprehensively consider different data and can provide a reference for preventing damage to transmission lines by lightning strike weather.

Keywords: lightning failure; mass function correction; Dempster–Shafer theory; risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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