Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting Using Functional Time Series Analysis

Faheem Jan, Ismail Shah and Sajid Ali
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Faheem Jan: Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
Ismail Shah: Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
Sajid Ali: Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 9, 1-15

Abstract: In recent years, efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity prices became highly important for all the market participants for developing bidding strategies and making investment decisions. However, as electricity prices exhibit specific features, such as periods of high volatility, seasonal patterns, calendar effects, nonlinearity, etc., their accurate forecasting is challenging. This study proposes a functional forecasting method for the accurate forecasting of electricity prices. A functional autoregressive model of order P is suggested for short-term price forecasting in the electricity markets. The applicability of the model is improved with the help of functional final prediction error (FFPE), through which the model dimensionality and lag structure were selected automatically. An application of the suggested algorithm was evaluated on the Italian electricity market (IPEX). The out-of-sample forecasted results indicate that the proposed method performs relatively better than the nonfunctional forecasting techniques such as autoregressive (AR) and naïve models.

Keywords: functional autoregressive model; functional principle component analysis; vector autoregressive model; functional final prediction error (FFPE); naive method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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