Natural Gas–Electricity Price Linkage Analysis Method Based on Benefit–Cost and Attention–VECM Model

Sheng Zhou, Wen Gan, Ang Liu, Xinyue Jiang, Chengliang Shen, Yunchu Wang, Li Yang () and Zhenzhi Lin
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Sheng Zhou: School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Wen Gan: Huzhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., Huzhou 313000, China
Ang Liu: Huzhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., Huzhou 313000, China
Xinyue Jiang: School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Chengliang Shen: Huzhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., Huzhou 313000, China
Yunchu Wang: School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Li Yang: School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
Zhenzhi Lin: School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: In recent years, frequent linkage events of natural gas and electricity prices have seriously affected the stability of the energy supply market. In view of the increasingly close linkage relationship between gas and electricity prices, a gas–electricity price linkage analysis method considering the benefit–cost and price transmission of gas units is proposed. Firstly, a benefit–cost model of gas units based on risk premium theory is constructed to reflect the willingness of gas units to offer prices in different market environments. Secondly, a vector error correction model (VECM)-based gas–electricity price conduction analysis method was proposed to study the long-term co-integration relationship between gas–electricity prices and the short-term fluctuation conduction process. Then, aiming at the problem of delay in price transmission, a time-delay analysis method of gas–electricity price based on the attention mechanism is proposed. Finally, the gas price index and average gas power price data of China from August 2020 to November 2022 are used to verify the validity of the proposed model; the numerical results show that the proposed method can determine the long-term stable fitting relationship between gas and electricity prices, and can also analyze and judge the conduction direction of gas and electricity price fluctuations in different time periods.

Keywords: gas–electricity price linkage; gas unit; benefit–cost model; vector error correction model; co-integration expression; attention mechanism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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