Optimization Modelling of the Decarbonization Scenario of the Total Energy System of Kazakhstan until 2060

Nurkhat Zhakiyev (), Ayagoz Khamzina, Svetlana Zhakiyeva, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov () and Carmelina Cosmi
Additional contact information
Nurkhat Zhakiyev: Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
Ayagoz Khamzina: Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
Svetlana Zhakiyeva: Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
Rocco De Miglio: Lead Architect of the Central Asia Caspian Energy System Model, Senior Energy Consultant, 10144 Torino, Italy
Aidyn Bakdolotov: Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
Carmelina Cosmi: National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), 85050 Tito Scalo, Italy

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 13, 1-14

Abstract: This research article provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of key structural changes in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex subsectors until 2060, focusing on decarbonization efforts. The background places the issue of decarbonization in a broader context, considering the country’s vast size and sparse population. The study’s purpose involves analyzing the development of the climate agenda by comparing two scenarios: a “reference” scenario without decarbonization measures and a carbon neutrality scenario until 2060 (CN2060). A mathematical technical-economic model based on the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) serves as the method to optimize and simulate Kazakhstan’s energy system. The main findings reveal sets of policies, standards, and legislative, economic, and political decisions that are required to achieve CN2060. Additionally, the integration of a low-carbon policy, sectoral and cross-cutting approaches, the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and energy security issues receive a discussion. The article concludes with projected shares of generation and investment in renewable energy sources (RES) necessary for attaining CN2060. This work offers novel insights into challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

Keywords: scenario analyses; Kazakhstan; green economy; TIMES; energy systems optimization modelling; low carbon strategy; carbon neutrality; sustainable development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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