A Cost–Benefit Analysis Framework for Power System Resilience Enhancement Based on Optimization via Simulation Considering Climate Changes and Cascading Outages

Emanuele Ciapessoni, Diego Cirio and Andrea Pitto ()
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Emanuele Ciapessoni: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE S.p.A., 20134 Milano, Italy
Diego Cirio: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE S.p.A., 20134 Milano, Italy
Andrea Pitto: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE S.p.A., 20134 Milano, Italy

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 13, 1-39

Abstract: Achieving a good level of resilience to extreme events caused by severe weather conditions is a major target for operators in modern power systems due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena. Moreover, regulatory authorities are pushing transmission and distribution operators to prepare resilience plans suitably supported by Cost–Benefit Analyses (CBAs). In this context, this paper proposes a CBA framework based on Optimization via Simulation (OvS) for the selection of the optimal portfolio of resilience enhancement measures. Starting from a comprehensive set of candidate grid hardening and operational measures, the optimal mix is identified by applying a novel two-step procedure based on an efficient application of the generalized pattern search heuristic technique. Risk indicators for the CBA are quantified, accounting for probabilistic models of climate changes. Moreover, the potential cascading outages due to multiple component failures provoked by extreme events are simulated on selected scenarios. The examples carried out on an IEEE test system show the effectiveness of the approach in identifying the best portfolio of resilience enhancement measures depending on climate change projections and costs of the measures, while the application to the model of a large portion of the Italian EHV transmission system demonstrates the practicability of the approach in real-world studies to support operators in different power system management phases, from planning to operation.

Keywords: climate changes; contingencies; generalized pattern search; optimization; resilience; resilience enhancement measures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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