Research on the Diffusion Model of Electric Vehicle Quantity Considering Individual Choice

Chenran Jia, Can Ding () and Wenhui Chen
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Chenran Jia: College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
Can Ding: College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
Wenhui Chen: College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 14, 1-15

Abstract: Regarding the issue of individual purchasing behavior in the rapid growth of electric vehicles, this article studies the diffusion model of electric vehicles considering individual choices and social effects from the perspective of the scale and quantity changes of electric vehicles. First, the neural network was used to predict the charging data of electric vehicles, and the economic effects of purchasing electric vehicles were calculated by combining the purchase cost and government subsidies. Then, the utility function for owners to purchase electric or traditional fuel vehicles was created by considering economic effects, cognitive attitudes, and social effects as factors that individuals need to consider when purchasing electric or traditional fuel vehicles. Finally, the discrete choice model was used to calculate the probability of users choosing to purchase electric or traditional fuel vehicles, and the number of electric vehicles was statistically calculated. Analysis of simulation examples shows that the growth rate of fuel vehicles decreases year by year during the simulation period, and the trend of electric vehicle growth follows an S-curve.

Keywords: electric vehicles; individual choice behavior; social effect; discrete selection model; electric vehicles diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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