Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems

Younes Mohammadi (), Aleksey Palstev, Boštjan Polajžer, Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh and Davood Khodadad
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Younes Mohammadi: Department of Applied Physics and Electronics, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden
Aleksey Palstev: Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden
Boštjan Polajžer: Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia
Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh: Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milano, Italy
Davood Khodadad: Department of Applied Physics and Electronics, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 14, 1-34

Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive study of winter temperatures in Norway and northern Sweden, covering a period of 50 to 70 years. The analysis utilizes Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate temperature trends at six selected locations. The results demonstrate an overall long-term rise in temperatures, which can be attributed to global warming. However, when investigating variations in highest, lowest, and average temperatures for December, January, and February, 50% of the cases exhibit a significant decrease in recent years, indicating colder winters, especially in December. The study also explores the variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations as a crucial climate factor over the last 15 years, estimating a possible 20% decrease/slowdown within the first half of the 21st century. Subsequently, the study investigates potential similarities between winter AMOC and winter temperatures in the mid to high latitudes over the chosen locations. Additionally, the study examines another important climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and explores possible similarities between the winter NAO index and winter temperatures. The findings reveal a moderate observed lagged correlation for AMOC-smoothed temperatures, particularly in December, along the coastal areas of Norway. Conversely, a stronger lagged correlation is observed between the winter NAO index and temperatures in northwest Sweden and coastal areas of Norway. Thus, NAO may influence both AMOC and winter temperatures (NAO drives both AMOC and temperatures). Furthermore, the paper investigates the impact of colder winters, whether caused by AMOC, NAO, or other factors like winds or sea ice changes, on electrical power and energy systems, highlighting potential challenges such as reduced electricity generation, increased electricity consumption, and the vulnerability of power grids to winter storms. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of enhancing the knowledge of electrical engineering researchers regarding important climate indices, AMOC and NAO, the possible associations between them and winter temperatures, and addressing the challenges posed by the likelihood of colder winters in power systems.

Keywords: winter temperatures; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); weakening; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA); electrical power and energy systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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