Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Polish Power System towards Achieving Climate Neutrality in 2050

Marcin Pluta (), Artur Wyrwa, Janusz Zyśk, Wojciech Suwała and Maciej Raczyński
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Marcin Pluta: Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Artur Wyrwa: Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Janusz Zyśk: Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Wojciech Suwała: Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Maciej Raczyński: Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 16, 1-25

Abstract: The Polish power system has been reducing its impact on the environment for a long time, mainly through modernization and investments in new generation capacities, including renewable energy technologies. However, its starting point is still more difficult compared to other less coal-dependent power systems in the European Union. The study was conducted in the direction of optimizing the Polish energy mix of electricity generation from the perspective of 2050. Two energy scenarios for the possible transformation of the Polish power system towards achieving at least a 95% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 with an increasing share of renewables were analyzed. The study was carried out with the use of the TIMES-PL model, which minimizes the total system cost over the analyzed time horizon. The model was calibrated according to data from 2018. The two scenarios show relatively similar pathways for CO 2 emission reductions by 2050. In the case of no investment in nuclear power plants, power plants equipped with CO 2 capture and storage systems are an alternative solution for achieving climate neutrality and increasing national energy security.

Keywords: power system; modeling; climate neutrality; renewables; nuclear power; CCS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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