Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN

Panagiotis Fragkos (), Francesco Dalla Longa, Eleftheria Zisarou, Bob van der Zwaan, Anastasis Giannousakis and Amir Fattahi
Additional contact information
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, 11523 Athens, Greece
Francesco Dalla Longa: TNO Energy Transition Studies, 1043 NT Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Eleftheria Zisarou: E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, 11523 Athens, Greece
Bob van der Zwaan: TNO Energy Transition Studies, 1043 NT Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Anastasis Giannousakis: E3Modelling S.A., Panormou 70-72, 11523 Athens, Greece
Amir Fattahi: TNO Energy Transition Studies, 1043 NT Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 18, 1-22

Abstract: This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals.

Keywords: climate policies; diagnostic indicators; energy efficiency targets; global energy mix; integrated assessment models (IAMs); PROMETHEUS; TIAM-ECN; stakeholder consultation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6421/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6421/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6421-:d:1233287

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().