Research on Regional Carbon Emission Reduction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics: Key Factors and Policy Analysis

Yuan Zeng, Wengang Zhang, Jingwen Sun, Li’ao Sun and Jun Wu ()
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Yuan Zeng: School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Wengang Zhang: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Jingwen Sun: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Li’ao Sun: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Jun Wu: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 18, 1-20

Abstract: Urban agglomerations are regions where the economy and population are highly concentrated, which are also spatial units with more concentrated carbon emissions. A detailed decomposition of driving factors based on changes in carbon emissions of urban agglomerations can provide a reference for better carbon reduction policies. In this paper, we establish an evaluation framework of carbon emission drivers of urban agglomeration from the perspective of CO 2 generation and removal using a system dynamics method. The key influencing factors and optimal emission reduction measures of carbon emissions in urban agglomerations are explored. The results are as follows: (1) The industrial structure is the key influencing factor of carbon emissions; (2) compared with no implementation of any policies, the total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of integrated policies all significantly decrease, with a decrease of 43.68% and 53.32%, respectively in 2035; (3) energy structure adjustment has a significant effect in reducing carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity; (4) the role of increasing investment in technological innovation in ensuring achievement of “carbon peak” should not be ignored. It is found that integrated policies often exhibit a better emission reduction effect, but this effect is not a simple summation of the effects of each single policy.

Keywords: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration; carbon emission reduction; carbon peak; system dynamics; scenario simulation; policy analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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