Probabilistic Evaluation of Geomechanical Risks in CO 2 Storage: An Exploration of Caprock Integrity Metrics Using a Multilaminate Model

Si-Yong Lee (), Farid Reza Mohamed, Kwang-Ho Lee, Brian McPherson, Robert Balch and Sangcheol Yoon
Additional contact information
Si-Yong Lee: SLB New Energy, Denver, CO 80202, USA
Farid Reza Mohamed: SLB Digital & Integration, Houston, TX 77042, USA
Kwang-Ho Lee: SLB Abingdon Technology Center, Abingdon OX14 4RU, UK
Brian McPherson: Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
Robert Balch: Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
Sangcheol Yoon: SLB Doll Research Center, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 19, 1-32

Abstract: The probabilistic uncertainty assessment of geomechanical risk—specifically, caprock failure—attributable to CO 2 injection, as presented in a simplified hypothetical geological model, was the focus of this study. Our approach amalgamates the implementation of a multilaminate model, the creation of a response surface model in conjunction with the Box–Behnken sampling design, the execution of associated numerical modeling experiments, and the utilization of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability distributions to encapsulate the inherent variability (elastic and mechanical properties of the caprock and reservoir) and uncertainty in prediction estimates (vertical displacement, total strain, and F value) were employed. Our findings reveal that the Young modulus of the caprock is a key factor controlling equivalent total strain but is insufficient as a stand-alone indicator of caprock integrity. It is confirmed that the caprock can accommodate significant deformation without failure, if it possesses a low Young’s modulus and high mechanical strength properties, such as the friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength. Similarly, vertical displacement was found to be an unreliable indicator for caprock integrity, as caprock failure can occur across a broad spectrum of vertical displacements, particularly when both the Young modulus and mechanical strength properties have wide ranges. This study introduces the F value as the most dependable indicator for caprock failure, although it is a theoretical attribute (the shortest distance between the Mohr circle and the nearest failure envelope used to measure the sensitivity to failure) and not physically measurable in the field. Deviatoric stress levels were found to vary based on stress regimes, with the maximum levels observed under extensive and compressive stress regimes. In conjunction with the use of the response surface method, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the multilaminate framework and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model in providing a simplified, yet effective, probabilistic model of the mechanical behavior of caprock failure, reducing mathematical and computational complexities.

Keywords: CO 2 storage; geomechanical risk; caprock failure; multilaminate model; response surface model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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