Reliability Prediction of Distribution Network Using IAO-Optimized Mixed-Kernel LSSVM

Chen Pan, Lijia Ren () and Junjie Wan
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Chen Pan: School of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China
Lijia Ren: School of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China
Junjie Wan: State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Research Institute, Shanghai 200437, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 21, 1-15

Abstract: For the sake of conducting distribution network reliability prediction in an accurate and efficient manner, a model for distribution network reliability prediction (IAO-LSSVM) based on an improved Aquila Optimizer (IAO) optimized mixed-kernel Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) is thus proposed in this paper. First, the influencing factors that greatly affect the distribution network reliability are screened out through grey relational analysis. Afterwards, the radial basis kernel function and polynomial kernel function are combined and a mixed kernel LSSVM model is constructed, which has better generalization ability. However, for the AO algorithm, it is easy to fall into local extremum. In such case, the AO algorithm is innovatively improved after both the improved tent chaotic initialization strategy and adaptive t-distribution strategy are introduced. Next, the parameters of the mixed-kernel LSSVM model are optimized and the IAO-LSSVM distribution network reliability prediction model is established through using the improved AO algorithm. In the end, the prediction results and errors of the IAO-LSSVM prediction model and other models are compared in the actual distribution network applications. It is revealed that the IAO-LSSVM prediction model proposed in this paper features higher accuracy and better stability.

Keywords: reliability prediction of distribution network; mixed-kernel LSSVM; improved Aquila Optimizer; grey relational analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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