Technology Route Options of China’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Analysis Based on the TOPSIS Method

Yuxiu Chen (), Chunxia Xu (), Xiaojun Yang, Xiaojia He, Zongwei Zhang, Jian Yu, Liyan Quan and Shiqi Yang
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Yuxiu Chen: Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development of the China Civil Aviation, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
Chunxia Xu: College of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
Xiaojun Yang: Science and Technology Institute, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
Xiaojia He: The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Beijing 100038, China
Zongwei Zhang: College of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
Jian Yu: Civil Aviation Management Institute of China, Beijing 100038, China
Liyan Quan: College of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
Shiqi Yang: College of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-20

Abstract: Developing production technology pathways of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that align with China’s national conditions and aviation transportation needs is crucial for promoting the SAF industry and achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. This article first projects the future SAF demand in China for the coming decades. Using SAF demand data as an input, this article employs the TOPSIS analysis method to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of four SAF production technology pathways at different stages of development in China, which are Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ), Natural Gas + Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis (G + FT), and Power-to-Liquid (PtL). The research results reveal the following trends: HEFA-based processes are the most suitable technology pathways for China in the near term; the G + FT route, based on energy crops, appears the most likely to support civil aviation needs in the medium to long term. In the long run, the PtL route holds significant potential, especially with the decreasing costs of green electricity, advancements in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology, and improvements in SAF synthesis methods. In the final section of this article, we provide recommendations to drive the development of the SAF industry in China.

Keywords: sustainable aviation fuel; demand prediction; technology pathways; TOPSIS; segmented ensemble prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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