High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources and Power Market Formation for Countries in Energy Transition: Assessment via Price Analysis and Energy Forecasting

Dimitrina Koeva (), Ralena Kutkarska and Vladimir Zinoviev
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Dimitrina Koeva: Department of Electric Power Supply and Electrical Equipment, Technical University of Gabrovo, 4 Hadgi Dimitar Str., 5300 Gabrovo, Bulgaria
Ralena Kutkarska: IT Department, Municipality of Sliven, 1 Tsar Osvoboditel Blvd., 8800 Sliven, Bulgaria
Vladimir Zinoviev: Department of Economics of Infrastructure, University of National and World Economy, 19 8-th December Str., 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 23, 1-23

Abstract: Climate change as a challenge we all are facing, varying degree of economic development as a result of COVID-19, the volatility in energy prices and political as well as other factors, most countries have restructured their electricity markets in order to facilitate the use of green renewable energy. The right energy mix in a period of energy transformation is the best strategy for achieving reduction of carbon emissions. Bulgaria is a special case because it has expanded the use of solar and wind energy exponentially, without conducting an adequate preliminary forecast analysis and formulating a parallel strategy for the development and expansion of the energy storage infrastructure. In this regard, the article is focused on how the power energy market is structured with the increasingly large-scale and global penetration of renewable energy sources as primary energy sources, observing several key factors influencing the energy transition. Due to the cyclical nature of energy production and the necessity for a smooth and efficient transition, a long-term seasonal storage plan should be considered. Furthermore, solar energy production facilities have a greater share of installed power, but wind power facilities generate a roughly equivalent amount of electric energy over the course of a year. One of the aims of this research is to discover an appropriate model for predicting the electricity output of wind and solar facilities located in Bulgaria that can be used to ease the transition process. Based on thorough data analysis of energy production over the past 11 years and 5 months, our findings suggest that a SARIMA model might be appropriate, as it takes into account the seasonal cycles in the production process.

Keywords: energy transition; renewable energy; energy forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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