Decomposition Analysis of Regional Electricity Consumption Drivers Considering Carbon Emission Constraints: A Comparison of Guangdong and Yunnan Provinces in China

Haobo Chen (), Shangyu Liu, Yaoqiu Kuang (), Jie Shu and Zetao Ma
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Haobo Chen: Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
Shangyu Liu: Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
Yaoqiu Kuang: School of Environment, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511486, China
Jie Shu: Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
Zetao Ma: Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-25

Abstract: Electricity consumption is closely linked to economic growth, social development, and carbon emissions. In order to fill the gap of previous studies on the decomposition of electricity consumption drivers that have not adequately considered carbon emission constraint, this study constructs the Kaya extended model of electricity consumption and analyzes the effects of drivers in industrial and residential sectors using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, and empirically explores the temporal and spatial differences in electricity consumption. Results show that: (1) During 2005–2021, the total final electricity consumption growth in Guangdong was much higher than that in Yunnan, but the average annual growth rate in Guangdong was lower, and the largest growth in both provinces was in the industrial sector. (2) The labor productivity level effect is the primary driver that increases total final electricity consumption (Guangdong: 78.5%, Yunnan: 87.1%), and the industrial carbon emission intensity effect is the primary driver that decreases total final electricity consumption (Guangdong: −75.3%, Yunnan: −72.3%). (3) The year-to-year effect of each driver by subsector is overall positively correlated with the year-to-year change in the corresponding driver, and declining carbon emission intensity is a major factor in reducing electricity consumption. (4) The difference in each effect between Guangdong and Yunnan is mainly determined by a change in the corresponding driver and subsectoral electricity consumption. Policy implications are put forward to promote energy conservation and the realization of the carbon neutrality goal.

Keywords: regional electricity consumption; LMDI; decomposition analysis; carbon emissions constraint; temporal and spatial differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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