Assessing the Future wind Energy Potential in Portugal Using a CMIP6 Model Ensemble and WRF High-Resolution Simulations

André Claro (), João A. Santos and David Carvalho
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André Claro: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB)—Department of Physics, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
João A. Santos: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB)—Department of Physics, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
David Carvalho: Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM)—Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 2, 1-19

Abstract: Future wind energy potential over Portugal is assessed, using wind speed data from a WRF regional simulation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. Data from a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble were also used to assess future changes in the Euro-Atlantic large-scale circulation. CMIP6 results have shown a southward displacement of the mid-latitude jet stream during winter, and a northward displacement during spring, summer, and autumn, which causes the northern winds to strengthen during summer along the north-western Iberian coast. Furthermore, in 2046–2065 the wind power density ( WPD ) should increase between 25% and 50% off the northwest coast of Portugal and in the Serra da Estrela mountain range during summer, which is in agreement with the CMIP6 global ensemble projections. Analyses of WPD ’s 2046–2065 daily variability of offshore north-western Portugal reveal a variability increase during winter, spring and summer, as well as more intense extreme WPD events, and less intense extreme events during autumn. The WPD ’s 2046–2065 inter-annual variability should increase off the northwest coast, and decrease along the central western and southern coasts, whereas it should increase in the entire studied area in 2081–2100, apart from the northern mountain regions and Cape Raso.

Keywords: climate change; wind power density; offshore wind; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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