Study on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Emission Reduction Path

Wei Shi, Zhiquan Sha (), Fuwei Qiao (), Wenwen Tang, Chuyu Luo, Yali Zheng, Chunli Wang and Jun Ge
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Wei Shi: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Zhiquan Sha: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Fuwei Qiao: College of Economic, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Wenwen Tang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Chuyu Luo: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Yali Zheng: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Chunli Wang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Jun Ge: Huaneng Pingliang Power Generation Co., Ltd., Pingliang 744000, China

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 2, 1-16

Abstract: Based on the total carbon emission data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper used non-parametric kernel density estimation and traditional and spatial Markov probability transfer matrix methods to explore the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions in China and then used a super-SBM model to calculate the carbon emission reduction potential of each province. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the total carbon emissions in China showed an upward trend of fluctuation, from 1.35 Gt to 4.90 Gt year by year, with an annual growth rate of 13.10%. (2) The core density curve showed a double peak form of “main peak + right peak,” indicating that a polarization phenomenon occurred in the region. (3) The overall trend of carbon dioxide emissions shifting to superheavy carbon emissions was significant, and the probability of transition was as high as 74.69%, indicating that it was challenging to achieve leapfrog transition in the short term. (4) Based on the principle of fairness and efficiency of provincial carbon emission reduction, mainland China’s 30 provincial administrative regions can be divided into four types. Finally, the carbon emission reduction path is designed for each province.

Keywords: carbon emissions; kernel density estimation; spatial Markov chain; emission reducing potential; mitigation paths (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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