Analyzing the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Risk Posed by a Mature Fusion Technology and Economy

Mark Diesendorf (), David Roser and Haydn Washington
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Mark Diesendorf: Environment & Society Group, School of Humanities & Languages, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
David Roser: Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Haydn Washington: Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: Nuclear fusion is widely promoted as the ultimate environmentally friendly solution to the world’s energy demands. However, the medium/long-term nuclear weapons proliferation risks from a hypothetical fusion economy are rarely considered. Using risk assessment tools, this paper undertakes a trial scoping of proliferation hazards arising from fusion energy technologies, focused on the implications of a global ‘Mature Fusion Economy’ (MFE). In the medium term, an MFE could (1) facilitate construction of large, efficient, and reliable nuclear arsenals by producing tritium and the fissile materials Plutonium-239 and Uranium-233; and (2) erode the barriers constraining nuclear weapons acquisition by facilitating the spread of nuclear knowledge, technologies, and materials. Given the potential scale of a global MFE, management via monitoring of proliferation and diplomacy could become unworkable. Therefore, policy development must include independent and comprehensive expert and informed community assessment of such fusion-enhanced risks, transparent oversight by the nuclear disarmament community, and systematic analysis of the issues raised in this paper and their implications for fusion into the very long-term future.

Keywords: nuclear fusion; nuclear proliferation; risk assessment; mature fusion economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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