A Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Outputs Based on Gradient Boosting Regression Tree Algorithms

Soyoung Park, Solyoung Jung, Jaegul Lee and Jin Hur ()
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Soyoung Park: Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Republic of Korea
Solyoung Jung: Korea Electric Power Corporation Research Institute, Daejeon 34056, Republic of Korea
Jaegul Lee: Korea Electric Power Corporation Research Institute, Daejeon 34056, Republic of Korea
Jin Hur: Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Republic of Korea

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 3, 1-12

Abstract: With growing interest in sustainability and net-zero emissions, there has been a global trend to integrate wind power into energy grids. However, challenges such as the intermittency of wind energy remain, which leads to a significant need for accurate wind-power forecasting. Therefore, this study focuses on creating a wind-power generation-forecasting model using a machine-learning algorithm. In this study, we used the gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm to build a wind-power forecasting model. Time-series data with a 15 min interval from Jeju’s wind farms were applied to the model as input data. The short-term forecasting model trained by the same month with the test set turns out to have the best performance, with an NMAE value of 5.15%. Furthermore, the forecasting results were applied to Jeju’s power system to carry out a grid-security analysis. The improved accuracy of wind-power forecasting and its impact on the security of electrical grids in this study potentially contributes to greater integration of wind energy.

Keywords: renewable energy; wind-power forecasting; machine learning; gradient-boosting machine (GBM) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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