The Role of Biogas Potential in Building the Energy Independence of the Three Seas Initiative Countries

Grzegorz Ślusarz, Dariusz Twaróg (), Barbara Gołębiewska (), Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, Jarosław Gołębiewski and Philipp Plutecki
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Grzegorz Ślusarz: Institute of Economics and Finance, University of Rzeszów, M. Cwiklińska Street 2, 35-601 Rzeszów, Poland
Dariusz Twaróg: Department of Physics and Medical Engineering, Rzeszów University of Technology, Powstańców Warszawy Street 12, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
Barbara Gołębiewska: Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska Street 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Marek Cierpiał-Wolan: Institute of Economics and Finance, University of Rzeszów, M. Cwiklińska Street 2, 35-601 Rzeszów, Poland
Jarosław Gołębiewski: Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska Street 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland
Philipp Plutecki: Statistical Office in Rzeszów, Jana III Sobieskiego Street 10, 35-001 Rzeszów, Poland

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: Increasing biogas production in the Three Seas Initiative countries (3SI) is a good way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy self-sufficiency by replacing some of the fossil energy sources. An assessment of the biogas production potential carried out for the 3SI at the NUTS 1 and NUTS 2 level shows that the potential of this energy carrier was stable for the period (from 2010–2021). The results showed that it can cover from approximately 10% (Hungary, Slovakia) to more than 34% (Estonia, Slovenia) of natural gas consumption; moreover, there is strong variation in the value of potential at the regional level (NUTS 2) in most of the countries studied. The biogas production forecast was carried out with the ARIMA model using four regressors, which are GDP, biogas potential utilisation, natural gas consumption and investments in RES (renewable energy sources) infrastructure, including changes in the EU energy policy after 24 February 2022. In the most promising scenario (four regressors), the results obtained for the period from 2022–2030 predict a rapid increase in biogas production in the 3SI countries, from 32.4 ± 11.3% for the Czech Republic to 138.7 ± 27.5% for Estonia (relative to 2021). However, in the case of six countries (Bulgaria, Lithuania, Hungary, Austria, Poland and Romania) the utilisation of 50% of the potential will most likely occur in the fifth decade of the 21st century. The above results differ significantly for those obtained for three regressors, where the highest rise is predicted for Bulgaria at 33.5 ± 16.1% and the lowest for Slovenia, at only 2.8 ± 14.4% (relative to 2021).

Keywords: biogas; Three Seas Initiative countries; ARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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