Fatigue Reliability Based on Predicted Posterior Stress Ranges Determined from Strain Measurements of Wind Turbine Support Structures

Marko Kinne () and Sebastian Thöns
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Marko Kinne: Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM), 12205 Berlin, Germany
Sebastian Thöns: Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM), 12205 Berlin, Germany

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 5, 1-26

Abstract: In the present paper, an approach for updating the continuous stress range distribution of a welded connection of a wind turbine support structure with predicted information from strain measurements is presented. Environmental conditions, such as wind or, in offshore fields, waves and currents, in combination with rotor excitations generate cyclic stresses affecting the reliability of welded joints of the support structure over the service life. Using strain measurements, these conditions can be monitored, and the resulting stress ranges, under consideration of measurement, mechanical and material uncertainties, can be reconstructed. These stress ranges can be used as an input for updating the prior probability density function (PDF) of the stress ranges predicted by the overall dynamics and a detailed design analysis. Applying Bayesian probability theory and decision theoretical implications, the predicted posterior probability density of the stress ranges is calculated based on the design information and uncertainties. This approach is exemplified, and it is shown how the predicted stress ranges and the design stress ranges are distributed. The prior and the predicted posterior stress ranges are used for a reliability calculation for potentially entering a pre-posterior decision analysis.

Keywords: Bayesian updating of stress ranges; posterior fatigue reliability; strain measurements of wind turbine support structures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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