Load Forecasting Based on Genetic Algorithm–Artificial Neural Network-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems: A Case Study in Iraq

Ahmed Mazin Majid AL-Qaysi, Altug Bozkurt () and Yavuz Ates
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Ahmed Mazin Majid AL-Qaysi: Department of Electrical Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, 34220 Istanbul, Turkey
Altug Bozkurt: Department of Electrical Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, 34220 Istanbul, Turkey
Yavuz Ates: Department of Electrical Electronics Engineering, Manisa Celal Bayar University, 45140 Manisa, Turkey

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 6, 1-20

Abstract: This study focuses on the important issue of predicting electricity load for efficient energy management. To achieve this goal, different statistical methods were compared, and results over time were analyzed using various ratios and layers for training and testing. This study uses an artificial neural network (ANN) model with advanced prediction techniques such as genetic algorithms (GA) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). This article stands out with a comprehensive compilation of many features and methodologies previously presented in other studies. This study uses a long-term pattern in the prediction process and achieves the lowest relative error values by using hourly divided annual data for testing and training. Data samples were applied to different algorithms, and we examined their effects on load predictions to understand the relationship between various factors and electrical load. This study shows that the ANN–GA model has good accuracy and low error rates for load predictions compared to other models, resulting in the best performance for our system.

Keywords: artificial neural network; adaptive neuro-based fuzzy inference system; electrical load forecasting; genetic algorithms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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