A Hybrid Deep Neural Network Architecture for Day-Ahead Electricity Forecasting: Post-COVID Paradigm

Neilson Luniere Vilaça, Marly Guimarães Fernandes Costa and Cicero Ferreira Fernandes Costa Filho ()
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Neilson Luniere Vilaça: Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Technology, Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus 69077-000, Brazil
Marly Guimarães Fernandes Costa: Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Technology, and R&D Center in Electronic and Information Technology, Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus 69077-000, Brazil
Cicero Ferreira Fernandes Costa Filho: Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Technology, and R&D Center in Electronic and Information Technology, Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus 69077-000, Brazil

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 8, 1-14

Abstract: Predicting energy demand in adverse scenarios, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, is critical to ensure the supply of electricity and the operation of essential services in metropolitan regions. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to predict the demand for the next day using the “IEEE DataPort Competition Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting: Post-COVID Paradigm” database. The best model uses hybrid deep neural network architecture (convolutional network–recurrent network) to extract spatial-temporal features from the input data. A preliminary analysis of the input data was performed, excluding anomalous variables. A sliding window was applied for importing the data into the network input. The input data was normalized, using a higher weight for the demand variable. The proposed model’s performance was better than the models that stood out in the competition, with a mean absolute error of 2361.84 kW. The high similarity between the actual demand curve and the predicted demand curve evidences the efficiency of the application of deep networks compared with the classical methods applied by other authors. In the pandemic scenario, the applied technique proved to be the best strategy to predict demand for the next day.

Keywords: load forecasting; convolutional neural network; recurrent neural network; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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