Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

Pusanisa Paiboonsin (), Gbemi Oluleye, Mark Howells, Rudolf Yeganyan, Carla Cannone and Simon Patterson
Additional contact information
Pusanisa Paiboonsin: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 1NE, UK
Gbemi Oluleye: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 1NE, UK
Mark Howells: Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Rudolf Yeganyan: Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Carla Cannone: Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Simon Patterson: Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK

Energies, 2023, vol. 17, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO 2 emissions (10,134 MtCO 2 ), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO 2 ) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.

Keywords: energy modelling; energy transition; policy planning; OSeMOSYS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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