Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Using a VMD-Crossformer Model

Siting Li and Huafeng Cai ()
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Siting Li: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China
Huafeng Cai: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-18

Abstract: There are several complex and unpredictable aspects that affect the power grid. To make short-term power load forecasting more accurate, a short-term power load forecasting model that utilizes the VMD-Crossformer is suggested in this paper. First, the ideal number of decomposition layers was ascertained using a variational mode decomposition (VMD) parameter optimum approach based on the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC). Second, the original data was decomposed into multiple modal components using VMD, and then the original data were reconstructed with the modal components. Finally, the reconstructed data were input into the Crossformer network, which utilizes the cross-dimensional dependence of multivariate time series (MTS) prediction; that is, the dimension-segment-wise (DSW) embedding and the two-stage attention (TSA) layer were designed to establish a hierarchical encoder–decoder (HED), and the final prediction was performed using information from different scales. The experimental results show that the method could accurately predict the electricity load with high accuracy and reliability. The MAE, MAPE, and RMSE were 61.532 MW, 1.841%, and 84.486 MW, respectively, for dataset I. The MAE, MAPE, and RMSE were 68.906 MW, 0.847%, and 89.209 MW, respectively, for dataset II. Compared with other models, the model in this paper predicted better.

Keywords: short-term power load forecasting; Pearson correlation coefficient; variational mode decomposition; cross-dimensional dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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