Cost-Effective Target Capacity Assessment in the Energy Transition: The Italian Methodology

Enrico Maria Carlini, Corrado Gadaleta, Michela Migliori (), Francesca Ferretti (), Riccardo Vailati, Andrea Venturini and Cinzia Puglisi
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Enrico Maria Carlini: Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy
Corrado Gadaleta: Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy
Michela Migliori: Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy
Francesca Ferretti: Italian Transmission System Operator, Terna S.p.A., 00156 Rome, Italy
Riccardo Vailati: Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and Environment, 20121 Milan, Italy
Andrea Venturini: Italian Electrotechnical Experimental Center, CESI S.p.A., 20134 Milan, Italy
Cinzia Puglisi: Italian Electrotechnical Experimental Center, CESI S.p.A., 20134 Milan, Italy

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-25

Abstract: Long-term transmission expansion planning has to face the energy transition in a restructured electricity market environment. Increased transmission capacity within and between Member States is likely to play an essential role in maintaining the secure and economic operation of the whole European power system and ensuring the integration of growing renewable generation. This paper proposes a novel iterative methodology aimed at assessing an optimal level of interconnection between relevant bidding zones, simultaneously investigating different potential alternatives. Starting from a reference grid, a multi-criteria analysis is adopted to select the additional transmission capacities to be tested in each iteration via network and market simulations in order to confirm that transmission expansion benefits outweigh the estimated realization costs. The proposed approach is applied to the Italian case in two contrasting energy scenarios for the mid-term 2030 and very-long-term 2040 horizons: different development strategies are derived, and the least regret criterion is applied to define the most cost-effective as the target development strategy for the Transmission System Operator (TSO). Furthermore, sensitivity analyses on relevant input data variation are performed to test the robustness of the results obtained.

Keywords: target capacity; cost-effective transmission expansion planning; energy transition; interconnection levels; least regret; sensitivity analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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