Markov Chain Analysis of Ship Energy Efficiency

Yordan Garbatov (), Dimitar Yalamov and Petar Georgiev
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Yordan Garbatov: Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Dimitar Yalamov: Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Department, Technical University of Varna, Studentska Str. 1, 9010 Varna, Bulgaria
Petar Georgiev: Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Department, Technical University of Varna, Studentska Str. 1, 9010 Varna, Bulgaria

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-13

Abstract: A formulation is presented for the assessment of the CO 2 generated by ships in operation and their evolution with time, conditional on the current legislation using Markov chains. Any potential deep repair or retrofitting of the ship propulsion system or enhancement of route operational characteristics during the service life are not accounted for. The Markov transition matrix is defined based on the ship operations and CO 2 history of A, B, C, D, and E carbon intensity indicator (CII) rates. The transition between different CII rate states in the survey data is used to estimate the probability of transition of the analysed ships between different CII grates. Distinct transition matrices employing the progressively tightened legislation of CII are employed and analysed. In addition, the transition matrices can be fed into risk-based models that take the CII rates as input for defining the most appropriate ship energy efficiency management plan.

Keywords: ships; energy efficiency; Markov chain; likelihood; carbon intensity indicator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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