Prediction of Energy Consumption on Example of Heterogenic Commercial Buildings

Kazimierz Kawa (), Rafał Mularczyk, Waldemar Bauer, Katarzyna Grobler-Dębska and Edyta Kucharska
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Kazimierz Kawa: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Rafał Mularczyk: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Waldemar Bauer: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Katarzyna Grobler-Dębska: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Edyta Kucharska: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Automatics, Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow, Poland

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-16

Abstract: The management of large enterprises influences their efficiency and profitability. One of the important aspects is the appropriate management of electricity consumption used for production and daily operation. The problem becomes more complicated when you need to manage not one but a large complex of buildings with heterogeneous purposes. In the paper, we examine real-time series data of electrical energy consumption in a complex of heterogeneous buildings, including offices and warehouses, using time series analysis methods such as the Holt–Winters model and ARIMA/SARIMA model, and neural networks (Deep Neural Network, Recurrent Neural Network, and Long Short-Term Memory). Experimental research was performed on a dataset obtained from an energy consumption meter placed in the building complex, built in different periods, and equipped with a variety of automation devices. The data were collected over a period of four years 2018–2021 in the form of time series. Results show that classic models are good at predicting energy consumption in the mentioned type of buildings. The ARIMA model gave the best results—for buildings characterized by seasonality and trends the forecasts were almost perfect with actual values.

Keywords: heterogenious commercial buildings; ARIMA; Holt–Winters; neural networks; energy consumption predictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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