Bus Basis Model Applied to the Chilean Power System: A Detailed Look at Chilean Electric Demand

Carlos Benavides (), Sebastián Gwinner, Andrés Ulloa, José Barrales-Ruiz, Vicente Sepúlveda and Manuel Díaz
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Carlos Benavides: Energy Center, Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago 8370450, Chile
Sebastián Gwinner: Energy Center, Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago 8370450, Chile
Andrés Ulloa: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción 4090541, Chile
José Barrales-Ruiz: Center of Economics for Sustainable Development (CEDES), Faculty of Economics and Government, Universidad San Sebastian, Concepción 4080871, Chile
Vicente Sepúlveda: Energy Center, Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago 8370450, Chile
Manuel Díaz: Energy Center, Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago 8370450, Chile

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-28

Abstract: This paper presents a methodology to forecast electrical demand for the Chilean Electrical Power System considering a national, regional, district and bus spatial disaggregation. The methodology developed was based on different kinds of econometric models and end-use models to represent the massification of low carbon emission technologies such as electromobility, electric heating, electric water heating, and distributed generation. In addition, the methodology developed allows for the projection of the electric demand considering different kinds of clients as regulated and non-regulated clients, and different economic sectors. The model was applied to forecast the long-term electricity demand in Chile for the period 2022–2042 for 207 districts and 474 buses. The results include projections under the base case and low carbon scenarios, highlighting the significant influence of new technologies on future demand.

Keywords: electric demand model; climate change; energy demand projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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