Impact of Climate Change on Electric Energy Production from Medium-Size Photovoltaic Module Systems Based on RCP Climate Scenarios

Nándor Bozsik, András Szeberényi () and Norbert Bozsik
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Nándor Bozsik: Donát Bánki Faculty of Mechanical and Safety Engineering, Óbuda University, 1081 Budapest, Hungary
András Szeberényi: Institute of Communications and Marketing, Budapest Metropolitan University, 1148 Budapest, Hungary
Norbert Bozsik: Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, 2100 Gödöllő, Hungary

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-32

Abstract: The impact of climate change is increasingly evident in various domains today and is gaining prominence in scientific inquiries. Climate change also affects the utilisation of renewable energies. The article examines the effects of 21st-century climate change on the annual electric energy production of medium-sized photovoltaic module systems. The study bases its analysis on three possible scenarios: a pessimistic (RCP 8.5), a less pessimistic (RCP 4.5), and an optimistic (RCP 2.6) scenario. The applied Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to enhance comparability in analyses related to climate change. Compared to older linear models, an innovation utilises a more flexible and multidirectional model. One of the article’s key findings is that, for all three examined settlements, the annual yield of the studied photovoltaic systems will surpass the levels of the base year 2010 by the middle and end of the century. Another significant outcome is that, under the three scenarios analysed, the ratio of annual performance variation to annual global radiation variation shows substantial differences by the middle and end of the century compared to the 2010 baseline. In the optimistic scenario, this ratio exceeds 1, whereas in the pessimistic and less pessimistic scenarios, it falls below 1. This ratio does not directly inform about the annual production—which increases in all cases—but rather about the changes in efficiency. These efficiency changes are influenced by the rise in annual average temperatures and the fluctuation in sunny hours yearly. The third finding reveals that under the climate change pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the efficiency decrease is less adverse than in the less pessimistic scenario (RCP 4.5).

Keywords: climate change; photovoltaic module system; electric energy production; efficiency; region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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