Analysis and Short-Term Peak Forecasting of the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry at the Provincial Level in China

Chao Dai, Yuan Tan, Shuangping Cao (), Hong Liao, Jie Pu, Haiyan Huang and Weiguang Cai
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Chao Dai: China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401329, China
Yuan Tan: China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401329, China
Shuangping Cao: Architecture and Engineering Institute, Chongqing College of Architecture and Technology, Chongqing 401331, China
Hong Liao: China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401329, China
Jie Pu: China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing 401329, China
Haiyan Huang: Innovation and Entrepreneurship College, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665, China
Weiguang Cai: School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-15

Abstract: The construction industry plays a pivotal role in China’s achievement of its “dual carbon” goals. This study conducts a decomposition analysis of the carbon emissions from the construction industry (CECI) at both national and provincial levels for the period 2010–2020 and employs the ARIMA model to predict the short-term peak trends at the provincial level. The findings are as follows. (1) Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing exhibit an N-shaped trend in CECI, while the northeast region shows an inverted U-shaped trend. (2) Labor productivity and energy intensity are identified as the largest and smallest drivers of national CECI growth, respectively, with the driving force of the study’s identified factors fluctuating between 1% and 60%. (3) Energy intensity significantly contributes to the growth of CECI in Tianjin and Zhejiang, while it aids in reducing CECI in western provinces. The “rebound effect” of building energy efficiency is particularly pronounced in provinces with strong resource endowments, such as Ningxia. (4) Between 2021 and 2025, CECI is predicted to decrease in the northern and economically developed provinces, while it is expected to increase in central and western provinces, with Heilongjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Shaanxi potentially reaching their peaks within the forecast period. The paper concludes with several recommendations.

Keywords: construction industry carbon emissions; driving factors; peak forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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