Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition

Brynhildur Davidsdottir (), Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson, Reza Fazeli, Ingunn Gunnarsdottir, Jonathan Leaver, Ehsan Shafiei and Hlynur Stefánsson
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Brynhildur Davidsdottir: School of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Environment & Natural Resources, University of Iceland, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland
Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson: School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland
Reza Fazeli: School of Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Ingunn Gunnarsdottir: Landsvirkjun—The National Power Company of Iceland, 105 Reykjavik, Iceland
Jonathan Leaver: School of Building Construction and Engineering, Unitec Institute of Technology, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
Ehsan Shafiei: RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, 413 27 Gothenburg, Sweden
Hlynur Stefánsson: School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, 102 Reykjavik, Iceland

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-28

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a decision support system (DSS) to capture the complexity of the transition of a national energy system to net zero in the context of multiple sustainability themes. The paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines dynamic systems modeling, sustainability indicators, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with direct stakeholder involvement. To illustrate the use of the DSS, the paper compares bundles of climate change policies that aim to decarbonize the road transport sector in Iceland. Eighteen scenarios and alternative development trajectories are defined for the Icelandic energy system based on a combination of three main driving forces. These are, firstly, economic development (three cases); secondly, changes in energy efficiency (two cases); and finally, three climate policy bundles aimed at increasing the share of electric vehicles. Based on the results from the integrated assessment framework, the performance scores of the climate policy bundles are compared across the following five sustainability themes: social impact; economic development; environmental impact; energy security; and technical aspects. The findings confirm that a different conclusion may be reached when multiple sustainability themes are applied in the selection of preferred policy bundles as compared to conventional techno-economic criteria. Banning the registration of fossil-fueled vehicles, combined with economic instruments, offers the best decarbonizing strategy to reach climate and energy policy goals simultaneously.

Keywords: sustainable energy development; system dynamics modeling; sustainability indicators; multi-criteria decision analysis; stakeholder engagement; low-carbon transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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