Projections for the 2050 Scenario of the Mexican Electrical System

Diocelina Toledo-Vázquez, Rosenberg J. Romero, Gabriela Hernández-Luna (), Jesús Cerezo and Moisés Montiel-González
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Diocelina Toledo-Vázquez: Posgrado en Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), Cuernavaca 62209, Mexico
Rosenberg J. Romero: Engineering and Applied Science Research Centre, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), Cuernavaca 62209, Mexico
Gabriela Hernández-Luna: Engineering and Applied Science Research Centre, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), Cuernavaca 62209, Mexico
Jesús Cerezo: Engineering and Applied Science Research Centre, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), Cuernavaca 62209, Mexico
Moisés Montiel-González: Chemistry Science and Engineering Faculty, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), Cuernavaca 62210, Mexico

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-17

Abstract: Electricity is fundamental to modern societies and will become even more so as its use expands through different technologies and population growth. Power generation is currently the largest source of carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions globally, but it is also the sector that is leading the transition to net zero emissions through the rapid rise of renewables. The impacts of COVID-19 on the electricity sector led to a reduction in the demand for electricity, while at the same time, the current global energy crisis has placed the security and affordability of electricity at the top of the political agenda in many countries. In this way, the decrease in the demand for electricity, as well as its gradual recovery, makes it necessary to carry out energy planning that considers the adverse effects caused by global events with a high socioeconomic impact. In this article, the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) 2020 software has been used to determine the distribution of energy sources to 2050 for Mexico. The variables that lead to the possible profiles for 2050 are social, economic, and technological. The results correspond to a possible future based on official data from the National Electric System (SEN) of Mexico. The forecast for 2050 indicates that the electricity sector will have almost double the current installed capacity; however, emissions do not correspond to twice as much: they are practically 50% higher.

Keywords: electricity sector; electricity consumption; COVID-19 pandemic; energy transition; climate change; energy models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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