Assessing Decarbonization Approaches across Major Economies

Andrea Tick, Askar Akaev, Tessaleno Campos Devezas, Askar Sarygulov, Alexander Petryakov and Anufriev Igor Evgenevich
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Askar Akaev: Faculty of Global Processes, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ulitsa Kolmogorova, 1, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Tessaleno Campos Devezas: Engineering Faculty, Atlântica Instituto Universitário, 2730-036 Barcarena, Portugal
Askar Sarygulov: Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Education on Technological and Economic Problems of Energy Transition, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politekhnicheskaya Ulitsa, 29, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia
Alexander Petryakov: Department of Finance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Krapivnyy Pereulok, No. 5, 194044 St. Petersburg, Russia
Anufriev Igor Evgenevich: Higher School of Applied Mathematics and Computational Physics, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politekhnicheskaya Ulitsa, 29, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-33

Abstract: The global energy transition is an uneven process, fundamentally related to the level of economic development of countries and their access to energy resources (renewable and non-renewable) to a large extent. The global climate is interconnected, and all nations impact it through their products and services. The six countries discussed—China, Brazil, Germany, Japan, Russia, and India—account for 44.8% of global primary energy consumption and 49% of global CO 2 emissions. Each of them has its own strategy for achieving carbon neutrality, based on different decarbonization scenarios, which, according to the authors, depend on geopolitical factors, national economy characteristics, and the established pragmatic goals and objectives. However, the “green agenda” itself may not always be among the top priorities when formulating energy strategies. The study objective is to analyze the feasibility of the stated goals in these countries using a combined logistic curve-based forecasting tool for predicting solar and wind production as well as investment volumes. It aims to justify the relation between solar and wind energy production and investment policies using a calculated technological coefficient. Results show similar, but time-shifted fluctuating investment dynamics in solar and wind energy trends in Japan, Germany and China, with Germany and Japan outperforming investment forecasts when considering the technology efficiency coefficient. Furthermore, the findings highlight the overwhelming appreciation of the unevenness of the green transition process, which will consequently make it impossible to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement until 2050. Taking these factors into consideration, exploratory decarbonization scenarios for these six major world economies alongside two dimensions, namely, the pace of green transition versus green technology and versus resources, are presented.

Keywords: energy transition; energy-intensive economy; national characteristics; geopolitical factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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