Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example

Sonja Arnold-Keifer (), Simon Hirzel and Clemens Rohde
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Sonja Arnold-Keifer: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Simon Hirzel: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Clemens Rohde: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-25

Abstract: Despite its high share in national energy demand, the tertiary sector is an undifferentiated residual in the energy balances of most countries. To develop effective policy measures for enhancing energy efficiency, policymakers need a sound understanding of how the energy demand is structured. To date, only a few studies assess energy demand in the tertiary sector quantitatively. This paper aims to close this gap by introducing an integrated model that transparently breaks down the energy demand according to statistical subsectors, energy carriers and end-uses. The model combines a technology-based bottom-up with a top-down approach and applies it to a case study on Germany based on survey data from companies. Model validity is analyzed using a set of indicators. The results for Germany show that the model is consistent with the national energy balance showing an aggregate deviation of only 1%. The results for 2019 indicate that electricity demand in Germany’s tertiary sector is dominated by lighting (35%), information and communication technologies (33%) and the provision of mechanical energy (9%), while fuel demand is mainly due to space heating (78%), followed by mechanical energy (15%).

Keywords: tertiary sector; service sector; energy end-use; energy demand model; energy consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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