An Integrated CEEMDAN to Optimize Deep Long Short-Term Memory Model for Wind Speed Forecasting

Yingying He, Likai Zhang (), Tengda Guan and Zheyu Zhang
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Yingying He: School of Computer Engineering, Chongqing College of Humanities, Science & Technology, Chongqing 401524, China
Likai Zhang: School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
Tengda Guan: School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
Zheyu Zhang: School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 18, 1-29

Abstract: Accurate wind speed forecasting is crucial for the efficient operation of renewable energy platforms, such as wind turbines, as it facilitates more effective management of power output and maintains grid reliability and stability. However, the inherent variability and intermittency of wind speed present significant challenges for achieving precise forecasts. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel method based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and a deep learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for wind speed forecasting. In the proposed method, CEEMDAN is utilized to decompose the original wind speed signal into different modes to capture the multiscale temporal properties and patterns of wind speeds. Subsequently, LSTM is employed to predict each subseries derived from the CEEMDAN process. These individual subseries predictions are then combined to generate the overall final forecast. The proposed method is validated using real-world wind speed data from Austria and Almeria. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method achieves minimal mean absolute percentage errors of 0.3285 and 0.1455, outperforming other popular models across multiple performance criteria.

Keywords: wind speed forecasting; complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition; long short-term memory; time series forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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