A Dynamic Analysis of Sustainable Economic Growth and FDI Inflow in Saudi Arabia Using ARDL Approach and VECM Technique

Abdullah Sultan Al Shammre () and Mariam Nasser Alshahrani
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Abdullah Sultan Al Shammre: Economics Department, School of Business, King Faisal University, Hofouf 31982, Saudi Arabia
Mariam Nasser Alshahrani: Economics Department, School of Business, King Faisal University, Hofouf 31982, Saudi Arabia

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 18, 1-19

Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between sustainable economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Saudi Arabia from 1980 to 2023. The ARDL approach and VECM technique are employed to analyze the short-run and long-run dynamics. The short-run results show mixed effects. Sustainable economic growth has a positive impact on current and one-period lagged FDI but a negative impact on the two periods lagged. Trade openness and infrastructure negatively affect FDI in the short run. Interestingly, oil rents and real economic growth also have negative short-run impacts on FDI, but these effects become positive with a longer lag. Long-run analysis reveals a negative relationship between trade openness, infrastructure, and oil rents with FDI, suggesting a potential crowding-out effect. Trade openness has a positive long-run impact on most variables, including sustainable growth, FDI, real growth, and CO 2 emissions. Oil rents also have a positive long-run impact on these variables. This study finds six bidirectional causal relationships in the short run, primarily between trade openness, infrastructure, oil rents, and FDI. Unidirectional causality runs from oil rents, trade openness, exchange rate, sustainable growth, and real growth to FDI and infrastructure. Additionally, CO 2 emissions cause FDI, and trade openness causes sustainable growth. While sustainable economic growth benefits FDI in the long run, short-term policies regarding trade openness and infrastructure require reevaluation. Oil revenue and real economic growth may initially deter FDI, but this reverses in the long term. To attract sustainable FDI, policymakers should focus on long-term economic growth strategies and consider reforms in trade and infrastructure policies. A comprehensive FDI strategy that moves beyond oil dependence and leverages trade openness is crucial to long-term economic diversification.

Keywords: sustainable economic growth; trade openness; official exchange; government effectiveness; inflation; oil rents; CO 2 emissions; real economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:18:p:4663-:d:1480941

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