Forecasting Motor Vehicle Ownership and Energy Demand Considering Electric Vehicle Penetration

Ning Mao, Jianbing Ma, Yongzhi Chen, Jinrui Xie, Qi Yu and Jie Liu ()
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Ning Mao: Transport planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, China
Jianbing Ma: Gansu Communication Investment Management Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730030, China
Yongzhi Chen: Gansu Communication Investment Management Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730030, China
Jinrui Xie: Gansu Communication Investment Management Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730030, China
Qi Yu: Transport planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, China
Jie Liu: Transport planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, China

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 20, 1-17

Abstract: Given the increasing environmental concerns and energy consumption, the transformation of the new energy vehicle industry is a key link in the innovation of the energy structure. The shift from traditional fossil fuels to clean energy encompasses various dimensions such as technological innovation, policy support, infrastructure development, and changes in consumer preferences. Predicting the future ownership of electric vehicles (EVs) and then estimating the energy demand for transportation is a pressing issue in the field of new energy. This study starts from dimensions such as cost, technology, environment, and consumer preferences, deeply explores the influencing factors on the ownership of EVs, analyzes the mechanisms of various factors on the development of EVs, establishes a predictive model for the ownership of motor vehicles considering the penetration of electric vehicles based on system dynamics, and then simulates the future annual trends in EV and conventional vehicle (CV) ownership under different scenarios based on the intensity of government funding. Using energy consumption formulas under different power modes, this study quantifies the electrification energy demand for transportation flows as fleet structure changes. The results indicate that under current policy implementation, the domestic ownership of EVs and CVs is projected to grow to 172.437 million and 433.362 million, respectively, by 2035, with the proportion of EV ownership in vehicles and energy consumption per thousand vehicles at 28.46% and 566,781 J·km ?1 , respectively. By increasing the technical and environmental factors by 40% and extending the preferential policies for purchasing new energy vehicles, domestic EV ownership is expected to increase to 201.276 million by 2035. This study provides data support for the government to formulate promotional policies and can also offer data support for the development of basic charging infrastructure.

Keywords: motor vehicle ownership; system dynamics; energy demand forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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