The Impact of Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios on Renewable Energy Production

Ashitosh Rajesh Varne, Simon Blouin, Baxter Lorenzo McIntosh Williams () and David Denkenberger ()
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Ashitosh Rajesh Varne: Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand
Simon Blouin: Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Lafayette, CO 80026, USA
Baxter Lorenzo McIntosh Williams: Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand
David Denkenberger: Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 20, 1-16

Abstract: To combat global warming, energy systems are transitioning to generation from renewable sources, such as wind and solar, which are sensitive to climate conditions. While their output is expected to be little affected by global warming, wind, and solar electricity generation could be affected by more drastic climatic changes, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRSs) caused by nuclear war (“nuclear winter”) or supervolcanic eruptions (“volcanic winter”). This paper assesses the impacts of an ASRS on global energy supply and security in a 100% renewable energy scenario. National generation mixes are determined according to roadmaps for a global transition to renewable energy, with wind and solar contributing a combined 94% of the global energy supply. Wind and solar generation are determined for a baseline climate and an ASRS following a large-scale nuclear exchange. While effects vary by country, overall wind and solar generation are expected to reduce by 59% in the first year following an ASRS, requiring over a decade for full recovery. Ensuring sufficient energy for everyone’s critical needs, including water, food, and building heating/cooling, would require international trade, resilient food production, and/or resilient energy sources, such as wood, geothermal, nuclear power, tidal power, and hydropower.

Keywords: global catastrophic risk; nuclear winter; volcanic winter; renewable energy; resilient energy systems; energy security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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