Evaluation and Long-Term Prediction of Annual Wind Farm Energy Production

Seunggun Hyun and Youn Cheol Park ()
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Seunggun Hyun: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea
Youn Cheol Park: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-12

Abstract: A comparison and evaluation of the AEP(Annual Energy Production) of a wind farm were conducted in this study with a feasibility study and using the actual operation data from the S wind farm on Jeju Island from January 2020 to December 2022. The free wind speed data were selected from the data measured from a nacelle anemometer, the correlation equation between wind speed and AEP was obtained, and the annual average wind speed for the past 20 years was predicted using the MCP method. As a result, comparing the AEP from the operation data with that estimated in the feasibility study, we found that the AEP was reduced by approximately 2.40% in 2020 and 12.14% in 2021, and increased by 6.76% in 2022. The wind speeds over the 20-year lifetimes of the wind turbines were obtained, and the AEP that could be generated at the S wind farm indicated that it could be used for operation. In the future, the S wind farm will operate at between 25% and 30% availability for the remaining 17 years of operation. If the availability falls below 25%, there will be a need to check the reasons for the deterioration of wind turbine performance and the frequency of failures.

Keywords: wind farm; wind turbine; supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA); annual energy production (AEP); measure correlate predict (MCP) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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