Dynamic Simulation of Carbon Emission Peak in City-Scale Building Sector: A Life-Cycle Approach Based on LEAP-SD Model

Yawei Du, Hongjiang Liu (), Tiantian Du, Junyue Liu, Ling Yin and Yang Yang
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Yawei Du: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
Hongjiang Liu: School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Tiantian Du: China Architecture Design and Research Group, Beijing 100044, China
Junyue Liu: Shenzhen Development Research Center for Real Estate and Urban Construction, Shenzhen 518000, China
Ling Yin: Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Yang Yang: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-24

Abstract: Systematically predicting carbon emissions in the building sector is crucial for formulating effective policies and plans. However, the timing and potential peak emissions from urban buildings remain unclear. This research integrates socio-economic, urban planning, building technology, and energy consumption factors to develop a LEAP-SD model using Shenzhen as a case study. The model considers the interrelationship between socio-economic development and energy consumption, providing more realistic scenario simulations to predict changes in carbon emissions within the urban building sector. The study investigates potential emission peaks and peak times of buildings under different population and building area development scenarios. The results indicate that achieving carbon peaking by 2030 is challenging under a business as usual (BAU) scenario. However, a 10% greater reduction in energy intensity compared to BAU could result in peaking around 2030. The simulation analysis highlights the significant impact of factors such as population growth rate, per capita residential building area, and energy consumption per unit building area and the need for a comprehensive analysis. It provides more realistic scenario simulations that not only enhance theories and models for predicting carbon emissions but also offer valuable insights for policymakers in establishing effective reduction targets and strategies.

Keywords: urban building sector; carbon emission peak; dynamic scenery simulation; SD-LEAP model; Shenzhen; process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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