Effect of Solar Irradiation Inter-Annual Variability on PV and CSP Power Plants Production Capacity: Portugal Case-Study

Ailton M. Tavares, Ricardo Conceição, Francisco M. Lopes and Hugo G. Silva ()
Additional contact information
Ailton M. Tavares: Cátedra Energias Renováveis, IIFA, Universidade de Évora, Edifício Ário Lobo de Azevedo, Nossa Senhora da Tourega, 7000-083 Évora, Portugal
Ricardo Conceição: High Temperature Processes Unit, IMDEA Energy, Avda. Ramón de La Sagra 3, 28935 Móstoles, Madrid, Spain
Francisco M. Lopes: Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
Hugo G. Silva: Laboratório Associado de Energia, Transporte e Aeronáutica (LAETA), Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-20

Abstract: The sizing of solar energy power plants is usually made using typical meteorological years, which disregards the inter-annual variability of the solar resource. Nevertheless, such variability is crucial for the bankability of these projects because it impacts on the production goals set at the time of the supply agreement. For that reason, this study aims to fill the gap in the existing literature and analyse the impact that solar resource variability has on solar power plant production as applied to the case of Portugal (southern Europe). To that end, 17 years (2003–2019) of meteorological data from a network of 90 ground stations hosted by the Portuguese Meteorological Service is examined. Annual capacity factor regarding photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants is computed using the System Advisor Model, used here for solar power performance simulations. In terms of results, while a long-term trend for increase in annual irradiation is found for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), 0.4148 and 3.2711 kWh/m 2 /year, respectively, consistent with a solar brightening period, no corresponding trend is found for PV or CSP production. The latter is attributed to the long-term upward trend of 0.0231 °C/year in annual average ambient temperature, which contributes to PV and CSP efficiency reduction. Spatial analysis of inter-annual relative variability for GHI and DNI shows a reduction in variability from the north to the south of the country, as well as for the respective power plant productions. Particularly, for PV, inter-annual variability ranges between 2.45% and 12.07% in Faro and Santarém, respectively, while higher values are generally found for CSP, 3.71% in Faro and 16.04% in São Pedro de Moel. These results are a contribution to future instalments of PV and CSP systems in southern Portugal, a region with very favourable conditions for solar energy harvesting, due to the combination of high production capacity and low inter-annual variability.

Keywords: solar brightening; capacity factor; inter-annual variability; power plant performance; solar radiation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/21/5490/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/21/5490/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:21:p:5490-:d:1512902

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().