Hourly Photovoltaic Production Prediction Using Numerical Weather Data and Neural Networks for Solar Energy Decision Support

Francesco Nicoletti () and Piero Bevilacqua
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Francesco Nicoletti: Department of Mechanical, Energy and Management Engineering (DIMEG), University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy
Piero Bevilacqua: Department of Mechanical, Energy and Management Engineering (DIMEG), University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: The day-ahead photovoltaic electricity forecast is increasingly necessary for grid operators and for energy communities. In the present work, the hourly PV production is estimated using two models based on feedforward neural networks (FFNNs). Most existing models use solar radiation as an input. Instead, the models proposed here use numerical weather prediction (NWP) data: ambient temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, which are easily accessible to anyone. The first proposed model uses multiple inputs, while the second one uses only the necessary information. A sensitivity analysis allows for the identification of the variables that are most influential on the estimation accuracy. This study concludes that the hourly temperature trend is the most important variable for prediction. The models’ accuracy was tested using experimental and NWP data, with the second model having almost the same accuracy as the first despite using fewer input data. The results obtained using experimental data as inputs show a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.95 for the hourly PV energy produced. The RMSE is about 6.4% of the panel peak power. When NWP data are used as inputs, R 2 is 0.879 and the RMSE is 10.5%. These models can have a significant impact by enabling individual energy communities to make their forecasts, resulting in energy savings and increased self-consumed energy.

Keywords: PV forecast; artificial neural network; photovoltaic; weather forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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