Analysis of Variability in Electric Power Consumption: A Methodology for Setting Time-Differentiated Tariffs

Javier E. Duarte, Javier Rosero-Garcia () and Oscar Duarte
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Javier E. Duarte: EM&D Research Group, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia
Javier Rosero-Garcia: EM&D Research Group, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia
Oscar Duarte: Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá 111321, Colombia

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-24

Abstract: The increasing concern for environmental conservation has spurred government initiatives towards energy efficiency. One of the key research areas in this regard is demand response, particularly focusing on differential pricing initiatives such as Time-of-Use (ToU). Differential tariffs are typically designed based on mathematical or statistical models analyzing historical electricity price and consumption data. This study proposes a methodology for identifying time intervals suitable for implementing ToU energy tariffs, achieved by analyzing electric power demand variability to estimate demand flexibility potential. The methodology transforms consumption data into variation via the coefficient of variation and, then, employs k-means data analysis techniques and the a priori algorithm. Tested with real data from smart meters in the Colombian electrical system, the methodology successfully identified time intervals with potential for establishing ToU tariffs. Additionally, no direct relationship was found between external variables such as socioeconomic level, user type, climate, and consumption variability. Finally, it was observed that user behavior concerning consumption variability could be categorized into two types of days: weekdays and non-working days.

Keywords: demand flexibility; demand variability; electric power; demand response (DR); data analysis; differential tariff scheme; time-of-use (ToU); advanced metering infrastructure (AMI); smart metering; smart meters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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